I agree with Mr. Rozoff...things could get rather interesting on Monday evening. The GFS and NAM/WRF models are in fairly good agreememnt with the evolution of the next system entering the picture. The NAM/WRF model takes the area of low pressure of 1006 MB into central Illinois, but the GFS is a little deeper with 998 MB and holds it further west into portions of northeast Missouri/southeast Iowa. The cold front should sweep from central Missouri southwestward into southeast Oklahoma by 00z Monday. The low levels will be primed with a 50-70 knot LLJ from southeast Oklahoma into southeastern Missouri, and MLCAPES of 2100-2400 JKG in a corridor from Dallas to Wichita. Storm relative helicities of 300-500 M2S2 will also aid in some good "twisting" and plenty of moisture should be present with 60 degree dewpoints as far north as western Illinois. I think the brunt of the severe weather should impede portions of southeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, and southcentral/southeastern Missouri. Although atmospheric indicies will be less further north, severe weather cannot be ruled out into central/southern Illinois as well. We will have to pay close attention to any storms that fire along the warm front as this is often the location that storms get into higher helicity values, increasing the tornado potential. This will be fun to watch. I will take anything after the winter we have had up here!!
Chris Howell (MESO Vice President)
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Man, I'm gonna probably have to get in my car and head south, or maybe not too far south if things really develop north like the model runs have recently shown!
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