It appears some storm chase potential may set up from NW KS (perhaps NE CO along the Palmer Divide, as well) and southward along the dryline. This setup is ahead of a cut-off low developing over Baja California and an upper level jet streak entering the area later in the day. Because of the moderate westerly flow aloft, a low-level jet at 850 mb out of the south setting up and backed surface winds, the vertical wind shear profiles (including storm relative helicity) will be very favorable for supercells and isolated tornadoes. With a surface low in SE CO, if resolved correctly, a dryline bulge may appear just south of GLD as well. Surface dewpoints will be in the low 60s. With steep lapse rates, mixed layer CAPEs ~1500 J/kg result ahead of the dryline, extending around the surface low into eastern CO. However, a capping inversion (EML with warm temps at 850-700 mb) may be advecting in later in the day, increasing CIN. Additionally, it is unclear whether earlier convection predicted in the NAM may stabilize the warm and moist sector of interest. Therefore, initiation will be conditional on destabilization in clearing areas and must be caused by a sufficiently strong forcing mechanism. Any midlevel disturbance may help, dry line punch, although I suspect the Palmer Divide in eastern CO may be another interesting location for storm initation. Thus, I suspect potential target zones may extend as far south as the northern TX panhandle, and more likely into western KS/eastern CO.
Keep tuned for Tuesday's severe weather outlook.
C.R.
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