April 7, 2008 Forecast: OK/TX

Interesting setup is emerging in southern OK and northeastern TX this afternoon. Lee side troughing and a developing low pressure system forming over northeastern NM is setting the stage for a possible supercell event. A warm front currently extends across southern OK, with a dryline running south of CDS. Surface winds are southerly to backed in the warm sector. Rich Gulf moisture is beginning to creep into the region of interest as well. Here's the SPC RUC/observation-based mesoanalysis showing much of the situation at the surface.
Shear and instability are already sufficient for supercells, and even tornadoes, but these parameters will improve through the evening, especially as the low-level jet picks up this evening and the upper level trough moves in. 18 Z sounding, just north of the warm front shows an already impressive wind profile and nice lapse rates above 700 mb.

Click to enlarge:

Supercells are likely to form along the northward moving warm front, and have good odds at being tornadic there. Other supercells may form along the N-S dryline. A no-brainer for local storm chasers today.


C. R. 2:30 pm