Both NAM and GFS are in rough agreement on the synoptic situation on Tuesday. The upper level trough will continue to move eastward on Tuesday and the developing surface low will move through IL by the evening as it heads towards the northeast. A fairly broad warm sector, which will of course bypass Wisconsin, will cover IL/SE MO/AR/TN/KY/IN/etc by convective hour. To the southwest of this low, a cold front will be sweeping east-southeastward during the day. While the forcing and unidirectional wind profiles along much of the cold front would seem to favor a squall line, impressive SRH exists in the warm sector on Tuesday, especially northward toward the warm front and low, which may impinge upon the southern Chicago area by evening. If adequate sunshine exists in the northern part of the threat area, an interesting tornadic supercell threat may form tomorrow afternoon/evening. Further south, squall line will be likely mode, but again, shear will be strong enough for supercells and moisture quality will be even greater. Tough forecast for a chaser - I will look at the forecast in more detail after tonight's 00 Z runs to get a feeling on whether a southern or northern target is preferred.
C.R. 2:40 pm
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